THE PREDICTION OF SCIENTIFIC-TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT OF GRAIN ECONOMY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Abstract

The article deals with the results of predictions of scientific-technological development of grain economy of the Russian Federation. The results of the study determined that the efficient use of land resources under grain crops could be achieved if the ratio of cultivation technologies (conventional, industrial and intensive) was 10%:35-40%:50-55% respectively. Such use of technologies for grain crops will give stable production of grain (120-130 mln ton per year) with the preservation of soil fertility. The results of predictions of technological development of grain breeding in Russia till 2020 demonstrate that a broad development of biological, agrotechnical and engineering innovations and results of NIOKR, new production resources, achievements of efficient ratio of plant-growing agrotechnologies will allow the Russian Federation achieving standards of food safety to 2020 (innovative forecast). If the current trends in the development of Russian grain economy remain the same (inertial forecast) over the medium term, it will preserve food dependence of Russia and will increase the cost of the crop production on 5-6% in comparison with optimistic forecast of technological development.

Keywords

• grain economy
• predictions (forecasts)
• program of technological development
• economic indexes