Pooled lagged effect of runoff on leptospirosis cases in Colombia

Abstract

Leptospirosis is a global zoonotic disease caused by spirochete bacteria of the genus Leptospira. The disease exhibits a notable incidence in tropical and developing countries, and in Colombia, environmental, economic, social, and cultural conditions favor disease transmission, directly impacting both mortality and morbidity rates. Our objective was to establish the pooled lagged effect of runoff on leptospirosis cases in Colombia. For our study, we included the top 20 Colombian municipalities with the highest number of leptospirosis cases. Monthly cases of leptospirosis, confirmed by laboratory tests and spanning from 2007 to 2022, were obtained from the National Public Health Surveillance System. Additionally, we collected monthly runoff and atmospheric and oceanic data from remote sensors. Multidimensional poverty index values for each municipality were sourced from the Terridata repository. We employed causal inference and distributed lag nonlinear models to estimate the lagged effect of runoff on leptospirosis cases. Municipality-specific estimates were combined through meta-analysis to derive a single estimate for all municipalities under study. The pooled results for the 20 municipalities suggest a lagged effect for the 0 to 2, and 0–3 months of runoff on leptospirosis when the runoff is < 120 g/m2. No effect was identified for longer lagged periods (0–1, 0 to 4, 0 to 5, and 0–6 months) or higher runoff values. Incorporation of the multidimensional poverty index into the meta-analysis of runoff contributed to the models for the lagged periods of 0–3, and 0–4 months.

Keywords

• Causal inference
• Ecological factors
• Hydroclimate variables
• Leptospira
• Multidimensional poverty
• Zoonosis