Long Term Historic Changes in the Flow of Lesser Zab River, Iraq

Abstract

The assessment of trends in river flows has become of interest to the scientific community in order to understand the changing characteristics of flow due to climate change. In this study, the trends in river flow of Dukan Dam located in the northern part of Iraq were assessed. The assessment was carried out for the period 1964 to 2013 using Sen’s slope and the Mann–Kendall test. Sen’s slope was used to assess the magnitude of change while the Mann–Kendall trend test was used to confirm the significance of trends. The results of the study showed that there was a decreasing trend in river flow both annually and for all individual months. The highest decreasing trend of −5.08846 m3/month was noticed in April, while the lowest change of −1.06022 m3/month was noticed in November. The annual flow also showed a significant decrease at a rate of −1.912 m3/year at a 95% level of confidence. Additionally, the findings of the study also confirmed that a decrease in precipitation and the construction of hydraulic structures reduced the flow in the river. The findings of the study suggest that decreasing trends may cause a water-scarce situation in the future if proper adaptation measures are not taken.

Keywords

• river flow trends
• climate change
• Mann–Kendall
• Sens’s slope
• Iraq