Molecular Evolution and Epidemiological Characteristics of SARS COV-2 in (Northwestern) Poland

Abstract

The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) evolved into a worldwide outbreak, with the first Polish cases in February/March 2020. This study aimed to investigate the molecular epidemiology of the circulating virus lineages between March 2020 and February 2021. We performed variant identification, spike mutation pattern analysis, and phylogenetic and evolutionary analyses for 1106 high-coverage whole-genome sequences, implementing maximum likelihood, multiple continuous-time Markov chain, and Bayesian birth–death skyline models. For time trends, logistic regression was used. In the dataset, virus B.1.221 lineage was predominant (15.37%), followed by B.1.258 (15.01%) and B.1.1.29 (11.48%) strains. Three clades were identified, being responsible for 74.41% of infections over the analyzed period. Expansion in variant diversity was observed since September 2020 with increasing frequency of the number in spike substitutions, mainly H69V70 deletion, P681H, N439K, and S98F. In population dynamics inferences, three periods with exponential increase in infection were observed, beginning in March, July, and September 2020, respectively, and were driven by different virus clades. Additionally, a notable increase in infections caused by the B.1.1.7 lineage since February 2021 was noted. Over time, the virus accumulated mutations related to optimized transmissibility; therefore, faster dissemination is reflected by the second wave of epidemics in Poland.

Keywords

• phylogeny
• clade
• lineage
• virus circulation
• molecular tracing
• SARS-Cov-2 outbreak in Poland