Development and internal validation of a nomogram for predicting outcomes in children with traumatic subdural hematoma

Abstract

Background A subdural hematoma (SDH) following a traumatic brain injury (TBI) in children can lead to unexpected death or disability. The nomogram is a clinical prediction tool used by physicians to provide prognosis advice to parents for making decisions regarding treatment. In the present study, a nomogram for predicting outcomes was developed and validated. In addition, the predictors associated with outcomes in children with traumatic SDH were determined. Methods In this retrospective study, 103 children with SDH after TBI were evaluated. According to the King’s Outcome Scale for Childhood Head Injury classification, the functional outcomes were assessed at hospital discharge and categorized into favorable and unfavorable. The predictors associated with the unfavorable outcomes were analyzed using binary logistic regression. Subsequently, a two-dimensional nomogram was developed for presentation of the predictive model. Results The predictive model with the lowest level of Akaike information criterion consisted of hypotension (odds ratio [OR], 9.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.0–42.9), Glasgow coma scale scores of 3–8 (OR, 8.2; 95% CI, 1.7–38.9), fixed pupil in one eye (OR, 4.8; 95% CI, 2.6–8.8), and fixed pupils in both eyes (OR, 3.5; 95% CI, 1.6–7.1). A midline shift ≥5 mm (OR, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.62–10.73) and co-existing intraventricular hemorrhage (OR, 6.5; 95% CI, 0.003–26.1) were also included. Conclusions SDH in pediatric TBI can lead to mortality and disability. The predictability level of the nomogram in the present study was excellent, and external validation should be conducted to confirm the performance of the clinical prediction tool.

Keywords

• head injury
• prediction
• prognosis
• subdural hematoma