Novel risk index integrating practical operation limits enhances probabilistic contingency ranking for large-scale photovoltaic plant planning

Abstract

Abstract This research addresses the pressing need for heightened grid security amid increasing uncertainties in photovoltaic PV generation. The research problem lies in the limitations of conventional contingency analysis metrics, failing to adequately consider both contingency occurrences and uncertainties inherent in PV generation. In response, a comprehensive algorithm is proposed that introduces a novel severity function framework, enhancing traditional contingency ranking metrics. This approach incorporates grid remedial actions and refines line and bus voltage classification by considering available correction time, aiming to offer a more robust security assessment. Motivated by the imperative to address uncertainty in PV generation, the proposed work builds on established analysis tools. A probabilistic load flow algorithm manages PV generation uncertainties, utilizing historical data for contingency incidence uncertainty. Additionally, a probabilistic model for PV plants integrates historical solar data, deriving hourly probability density functions to meet grid code requirements, including reactive power considerations. The justification for this work lies in the algorithm's demonstrated efficacy, validated on the IEEE 14-bus network. Results highlight its ability to identify risks associated with line overloading and bus voltage breaches. Comparative evaluations underscore proper coupling buses for security, favoring distributed capacity to mitigate line overloading risks. The study's key results emphasize voltage risk amplification with reactive power omission, stressing the significance of compensation strategies. This research addresses a critical problem, presenting a comprehensive algorithmic solution to enhance grid security amidst uncertainties in PV integration. Findings offer valuable insights for strategically interaction between large scale PV plants and electrical grid, contributing to an improved grid security paradigm in a dynamic and uncertain energy model.

Keywords

• Contingency analysis
• Power system planning
• Probabilistic modelling
• Photovoltaic
• Risk assessment