Neighborhood-Scale Wildfire Evacuation Vulnerability in Hays County, TX

Abstract

Despite increasing wildfire severity and range, rapid development in the fire-prone Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI) has continued, and many neighborhoods are at risk of a constrained wildfire evacuation due to a high ratio of houses to community road-network exits. In Texas, Hays County is prone to fire, and rapid population growth has created a substantial WUI. Despite this, there is not sufficient research addressing neighborhood-level evacuation risks. The goal of this research, then, is to search Hays County for neighborhoods that face the highest combined risk of wildfire and potential evacuation difficulty. This research provides a limited use case wherein local decision-makers can quantify the combined risk of wildfire and constrained evacuation at the neighborhood scale by making use of standard spatial analysis techniques and publicly available datasets. The results show an alarming trend of low-egress neighborhoods in fire-prone areas within Hays County which carry the risk of a very difficult evacuation in cases when wildfire warning time is short. By using publicly available datasets and standard techniques, this research provides methods for local decision-makers across the state to identify these at-risk neighborhoods within their own jurisdictions which may aid in emergency planning and mitigation.

Keywords

• wildfires
• wildland–urban interface (WUI)
• risk assessment
• geographic information science (GIS)
• hazards
• evacuation