A way forward to integrating cascading risk into local resilience strategies in Central Asia

Abstract

In a hyper-connected world reliant upon critical infrastructures for societal functions, cascading events and interconnected failures present increasing challenges for resilience. Presently lacking, considering cascading risk in resilience strategies could facilitate focused action to mitigate and manage risk. This research focuses on Central Asia–a diverse region of major strategic importance, often underexplored in Western academia–namely capital cities Nur-Sultan, Bishkek, and Dushanbe. Adopting a mixed methods approach to examine stakeholder perceptions of cascading risk and interconnected failures, their consideration in strategies, and priorities for and barriers to action, this paper outlines a way forward for key stakeholders and policymakers to integrate cascading risk into local resilience strategies.Results outline limited awareness and understanding of cascading risk, lending to inadequate consideration in resilience strategies despite perceived value. The paper proposes actions to integrate cascading risk and critical infrastructure resilience in local strategies, plans, and processes, and minimise barriers to implementation. It calls for a deeper understanding of the cultural and linguistic context in which cascading risk and related concepts are interpreted as a prerequisite to their integration, and positions strengthened cross-sectoral and regional coordination, and political buy-in from government, as necessary for effective action to build city resilience.

Keywords

• Cascading risk
• Critical infrastructure
• Interconnected failures
• Resilience
• Local strategy