Hybrid Possibilistic-Probabilistic Energy Flow Assessment for Multi-Energy Carrier Systems

Abstract

The uncertainty is a pivotal problem in Multi-Energy Carrier (MEC) systems, which leads to the strong demand of reasonable tools to evaluate uncertainties. When both possibilistic and probabilistic uncertainties exist in the real MEC systems, traditional possibilistic or probabilistic methods are no more suitable to be applied. Therefore, this paper proposes a hybrid possibilistic-probabilistic energy flow assessment method to evaluate these uncertainties. Firstly, to build a more precise uncertain model, the probabilistic and possibilistic uncertainties are respectively modeled by considering different uncertainties of sources, networks and loads of MEC systems, and the correlations among wind generation and energy loads. Then, the product t-norms of the extension principle plus $\alpha $ -cut method is firstly implemented in processing fuzzy energy flow, which can reduce overestimation compared with the sole $\alpha $ -cut method. Next, on the basis of Dempster-Shafer evidence theory, the hybrid possibilistic-probabilistic energy flow assessment approach is presented. Finally, two cases are carried out to verify the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method.

Keywords

• Multi-energy carrier
• possibilistic uncertainty
• probabilistic uncertainty
• uncertain energy flow