Planejamento Setorial e Regional: Um modelo de integração entre ferramentas de previsão aplicado ao transporte rodoviário de cargas

Abstract

This research aims to analyze the transport sector through a model that integrates the Prospective Scenarios with Systems Dynamics aiming predict future alternatives for the load for road transport in the region of Corede Production of Rio Grande do Sul/Brazil. In the first research tool was adopted the method described by Marcial and Grumbach (2012), in which experts contribute to the construction of scenarios. After the generation of scenarios, it was done an integration with the hard modeling of System Dynamics that seeks to provide alternatives that enable analysis, description and simulation of trends for the next five years. The results show a set of scenarios and actions by pointing out opportunities and threats in the external environment, strong and weak points of the internal environment, basing strategic and operational decisions in the present. It also executes predictions for the sector through simulation, and discusses the possibility of implementing a regional development agency, as a facilitator of the proposed model. The integration model proposed in this study proved useful because it reduced the number of future uncertainties, built by the reduction of events most likely to occur. This feature is important because it focuses on the investor in those events that can actually interfere with the evolution of the analyzed system.

Keywords

• prospective scenarios
• system dynamics
• load road transport
• corede production