Techno-economic sensitivity analysis for combined design and operation of a small modular reactor hybrid energy system

Abstract

With increasing grid-penetration of renewable energy resources and a rising need for carbon-free dispatchable power generation, nuclear-hybrid energy systems (NHES), consisting of small modular reactors, are an increasingly attractive option for maintaining grid stability. NHES can accomplish this with a minimal carbon footprint but there are significant uncertainties that are not fully understood. This work describes and demonstrates methods for analyzing the uncertainties of potential NHES designs, including uncertain design parameters and time series as well as variations in dispatch horizon length. The proposed methods are demonstrated on a sample system with 16 design parameters, 3 uncertain time series, and a range of dispatch horizon lengths where the unit capacities and unit dispatch are co-optimized to minimize system LCOE. For the example system, 11 of 16 parameters are uncorrelated with model outputs, allowing for model reduction without decreased accuracy. It is determined that the impact of variation in multiple time series cannot be easily isolated and that the examined sources of uncertainty are of similar importance in terms of overall impact.

Keywords

• Hybrid energy system
• Design optimization
• Sensitivity analysis
• Uncertainty quantification