中途輟學與犯罪之關聯性：次級資料分析並考量輟學原因 The Association Between Juvenile School Dropout and Crime: Results From Analyzing Secondary Data With Considering Dropout Reasons

Abstract

本研究分析國內政府巨量資料，驗證輟學與犯罪的因果關係。研究結果顯示，2005～2014年間於國民及學前教育署登記在案的中輟生，輟學次數愈多，2009～2016年間被警察逮捕的機率和次數愈高，且此關聯並不因輟學原因（如個人、家庭、學校和社會等因素）而消失。輟學源於學校因素（如對學校生活不感興趣、缺曠課太多和與同儕關係不佳等）影響輟學次數最大，而影響犯罪機率和次數最大的則是源於社會因素的輟學，由此可知，因受校外不良朋友引誘、受已輟學同學影響和流連／沉迷網咖／網路等社會因素而輟學者，其犯罪的機率和次數也會增加。再者，輟學對於不同犯罪類型的影響力有所差異，但達顯著統計關係的只有強盜與一般竊盜，亦即輟學次數愈多，參與強盜與一般竊盜的機率愈高。最後，路徑分析結果發現，一次輟學反而降低犯罪機率，必須重複輟學才會增加犯罪風險，同時犯罪亦會增加輟學機率。因此，本研究結果肯定多年來政府施行各項解決中輟問題的政策成效，及時發現中輟生問題，及時介入輔導，可避免問題持續惡化，然少數問題嚴重的學生，學校必須投注更多的心力，始能阻斷青少年走向偏差的道路。 This study analyzed domestic governmental big data to examine the causal relationship between dropping out of school and crime. Based on the 2005-2014 dropout data registered with the K-12 Education Administration and the arrest records from 2009-2016, results show that the number of dropping out of school were positively associated with the prevalence and frequency of arrest among the dropouts, even after accounting for the dropout reasons (including individual, family, school, and social factors). School factors (such as lack of interest in school life, absenteeism, and poor relationships with peers) revealed the largest impact on dropout frequency, while social factors (including the negative influence of friends outside of school, or those who have already dropped out, and elements such as internet addiction) demonstrated the strongest influence on both prevalence and frequency of crime, as measured by arrests. Furthermore, school dropout had different effects on different types of crime, with statistically significant findings for robbery and larceny. Namely, a higher frequency of dropping out of school was associated with a higher probability of being involved in robbery and larceny. Finally, path analysis found that while the risk of arrest increased with repeated dropout, one-time dropout, conversely, reduced the risk of arrest. Arrest also increased the probability of dropping out of school. Therefore, this study affirms the effectiveness of various government policies implemented to address the problem of dropout over the years. The timely detection of problems faced by dropouts and corresponding timely intervention and counseling can prevent problems from becoming worse. However, for a few students with more serious problems, schools must devote greater efforts to prevent adolescents from following a path leading to deviant behavior.

Keywords

• 中輟
• 犯罪
• 輟學原因
• 因果關係
• school dropout
• crime/arrest
• reasons for dropping out
• causal relationships