System Dynamics Modelling of the Power Sector in Mauritius

Abstract

A system dynamics model has been developed for the power sector of Mauritius, which captures a range of complex interactions between the economic, social and environmental aspects of the national economy, with deeper emphasis on the role of energy in these interactions. The model has been validated by replicating the historical trends of key development indicators, and its results were compared to the projections of the national utility company. The validation process shows that the model provides a faithful representation of the actual electricity sector of Mauritius, and can be easily adapted to the use of different assumptions. This paper describes the main characteristics of the model and its results as compared to electricity demand projections carried out by the Central Electricity Board to 2022. The results suggest that further analysis could be done to test alternative low carbon investment scenarios.

Keywords

• system dynamics
• electricity demand forecasting
• power sector
• mauritius