PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS OF DEEPENING EU-UKRAINIAN RELATIONS

Abstract

Three countries: Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine have concluded European Union Association Agreements, under similar terms and conditions of European Partnership. Analytical review allowed determining that in their political integrative development, they have similar problems and ways to overcome them. They are distinguished by a relatively high level of democratic freedoms and political pluralism; however, none of them can be considered as a consolidated democracy, these countries have hybrid political regimes. Among the main obstacles occurring on the way of their integration processes, one can distinguish problems associated with ethical, regional, and cultural conflicts; specific features of the formation of constitutional systems; features of the formation of PR technologies of government and society; deep-rooted corruption and influence of oligarchs in party systems and, as a consequence, propensity to use non-constitutional means of political struggle and economic development. Despite these structural problems, favouring European values and norms demonstrated by societies of the three countries holds the promise of consolidating democratic institutions and overcoming problems. The purpose of the article is to determine problems and prospects of deepening relations of the EU with three countries: Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia, and to substantiate theses stating that consistent and reinforced integration of the European Union in this region is crucial for further success and development of all actors of this process. Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine do not compose a single region (both in a geographical and economic context); however, since 2014 they are developing according to the same scenarios. Their aspiration to integration has provoked problems in relations with Russia and intensified opposition to the policy of Europeanisation within the countries. In Ukraine, the most difficult and severe events took place: it passed through government overthrow, loss of territory, and military actions in Donbas caused by Russia, which continue to this day. For Moldova and Georgia, the choice of democratic imperatives also had grave consequences. In Georgia, they were identified as two long-term wars for the separation in Abkhazia and South Ossetia; ended with the defeat of central authorities and creation of two unrecognized states. Moldova has faced a similar problem in Transnistria in 1992. In all countries, Russian armed forces were important actors who played an important role in determining the results of these conflicts. According to the Democracy Index, Moldova is evaluated as “imperfect democracy”; Georgia – as “hybrid regime”; Ukraine has moved below, from the category of “imperfect democracy” to the lowest “hybrid regime”. Over the political pressure of Russia, the EU and Ukraine postpone the provisional application of the DCFTA (Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area) to January 1, 2019. There are marked positive consequences of Ukrainian export to the EU, which volume has increased by 30% in 2017. The structure of exports to the EU has shifted towards machines and equipment, fats and oils of vegetable or animal origin, ready-made meals, and products of animal origin. The EU share in Ukrainian exports and imports has also increased due to a significant reduction in trade with Russia. The application of the EU tariff quotas for agricultural production has increased over the 2014–2017 years because Ukrainian producers have gradually overcome the problems with food safety and weak demand for their production. European choice is an extremely important factor for continuous democratization of all these three countries. In spite of competition among European and Eurasian identities, each of them considers itself a European country. The choice to continue the path of association with Europe, made by these countries, despite obvious political risks (especially severe for Ukraine), is the best evidence of their real adherence to European development path.

Keywords

• European studies, Democracy Index, DCFTA, Ukrainian import, Ukrainian export, tariff quota, democratic choice