Le vote intermittent - Comment les ségrégations urbaines influencent-elles les comportements électoraux en Ile-de-France ?

Abstract

This paper studies the influence of social inequalities on turnout fluctuations in the region Ile-de-France between 2002 and 2012. It uses aggregate electoral and census data at the municipality scale. Several linear regression models are established to explain the changing turnout rate while controlling the effect of distance by the concentration ratio of upper classes and migrants within the metropolitan area. Finally, those models are extended to explain the changing pattern in support of left-wing and far-right political parties between the 2009 European election and the 2012 presidential election.

Keywords

• vote
• inequalities
• turnout
• segregation
• urban marginality