Climate risk assessment in Uzbekistan: Surface air temperature anomaly for 2080-2099

Abstract

This study presents a detailed analysis of projected surface air temperature anomalies in Uzbekistan for the late 21st century (2080-2099), utilizing a multi-model ensemble under the high emission scenario SSP5-8.5. Our findings indicate a significant warming trend across the country, with average mean surface air temperature anomalies expected to range from +4.5°C to +4.7°C compared to two historical reference periods (1995-2014 and 1950-2014). These projections suggest profound implications for Uzbekistan’s water resources, agricultural productivity, and overall ecosystem health, highlighting the urgency of developing robust adaptation and mitigation strategies. The study underscores the importance of enhancing water use efficiency, adopting climate-resilient agricultural practices, and investing in sustainable infrastructure to combat the anticipated impacts of climate change. Additionally, it calls for collaborative efforts in policy-making, research, and community engagement to build resilience against the projected warming. The results emphasize the need for immediate action to safeguard Uzbekistan against the exacerbating effects of climate change, advocating for integrated approaches to climate resilience and sustainability. This research contributes to the broader understanding of regional climate dynamics under future emission scenarios, providing a foundation for targeted climate action in Central Asia.