Determinants of Inadequate Empiric Antimicrobial Therapy in ICU Sepsis Patients in Al-Madinah Al-Munawwarah, Saudi Arabia: A Comparison of Artificial Neural Network and Regression Analysis

Abstract

In the management of sepsis, providing adequate empiric antimicrobial therapy is one of the most important pillars of sepsis management. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the adequacy of empiric antimicrobial therapy (EAMT) in sepsis patients admitted to intensive care units (ICU) and to identify the determinants of inadequate EAMT. The aim of this study was to evaluate the adequacy of empiric antimicrobial therapy in patients admitted to the ICU with sepsis or septic shock, and the determinants of inadequate EAMT. The data of patients admitted to the ICU units due to sepsis or septic shock in two tertiary healthcare facilities in Al-Madinah Al-Munawwarah were retrospectively reviewed. The current study used logistic regression analysis and artificial neural network (ANN) analysis to identify determinants of inadequate empiric antimicrobial therapy, and evaluated the performance of these two approaches in predicting the inadequacy of EAMT. The findings of this study showed that fifty-three per cent of patients received inadequate EAMT. Determinants for inadequate EAMT were APACHE II score, multidrug-resistance organism (MDRO) infections, surgical history (lower limb amputation), and comorbidity (coronary artery disease). ANN performed as well as or better than logistic regression in predicating inadequate EAMT, as the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC-AUC) of the ANN model was higher when compared with the logistic regression model (LRM): 0.895 vs. 0.854. In addition, the ANN model performed better than LRM in predicting inadequate EAMT in terms of classification accuracy. In addition, ANN analysis revealed that the most important determinants of EAMT adequacy were the APACHE II score and MDRO. In conclusion, more than half of the patients received inadequate EAMT. Determinants of inadequate EAMT were APACHE II score, MDRO infections, comorbidity, and surgical history. This provides valuable inputs to improve the prescription of empiric antimicrobials in Saudi Arabia going forward. In addition, our study demonstrated the potential utility of applying artificial neural network analysis in the prediction of outcomes in healthcare research.

Keywords

• sepsis
• septic shock
• empiric antimicrobials
• determinants
• neural networks
• artificial intelligence