Trend Analysis and Spatial Source Attribution of Surface Ozone in Chaozhou, China

Abstract

Surface ozone (O3), a critical air pollutant, poses significant challenges in urban environments, as exemplified by the city of Chaozhou in southeastern China. This study employs a novel combination of trend analysis and spatial source attribution techniques to evaluate the long-term dynamics of surface ozone and identify its sources. Utilizing the Kolmogorov–Zurbenko (KZ) filter and percentile regression, we analyzed the temporal trends of daily maximum 8 h moving average ozone (MDA8 O3) concentrations from 2014 to 2023. Our analysis revealed a general long-term downward trend in MDA8 O3 values alongside notable monthly fluctuations, with peak concentrations typically occurring in October and April. Additionally, the percentile regression analysis demonstrated a significant downward trend in MDA8 O3 concentrations across nearly all percentiles, with larger decline rates at higher percentiles, highlighting the effectiveness of local and regional O3 management strategies in Chaozhou. The changes in MDA8 O3 concentrations were mainly influenced by the short-term component, contributing 62.2%, while the contribution of the long-term fraction is relatively small. This suggests a significant influence of immediate meteorological conditions and transient pollution events on local O3 levels. To further elucidate the origins of high O3 concentrations, trajectory cluster analysis, trajectory sector analysis (TSA), and potential source contribution function (PSCF) analysis were conducted. The trajectory cluster analysis revealed that the northeast air mass was the main transport air mass in Chaozhou during the study period, accounting for 39.1% of occurrences. The northeast cluster C with medium-distance trajectories corresponds to higher concentration of O3, which may be the main transport pathway of O3 pollution in Chaozhou. TSA corroborates these findings, with northeast sectors 1, 2, and 3 accounting for 50.3% of trajectory residence time and contributing 52.2% to O3 levels in Chaozhou. PSCF results further indicate potential high O3 sources from the northeast, especially in autumn. This comprehensive analysis suggests that Chaozhou’s elevated O3 levels are influenced by both regional transport from the northeast and local emissions. These findings offer crucial insights into the temporal dynamics of surface O3 in Chaozhou, paving the way for more effective and targeted air quality management strategies.

Keywords

• O₃
• KZ filter
• percentile regression
• cluster analysis
• trajectory sector analysis
• potential source contribution function