The 2021 Cholera Outbreak in Nigeria, Data and Models Used to Explore Controls and Challenges

Abstract

Cholera is an acute diarrhoeal illness that affects humanity globally, especially in areas where there is limited access to clean water and adequate sanitation. A Nigerian cholera outbreak from January 2021 to January 2022 resulted in many cases and deaths. A mathematical model that takes into consideration the challenges that affected effective implementation of control measures for this 2021 cholera outbreak is developed. Important epidemiological features of the model such as the basic reproduction number (R0), the disease-free equilibrium, and the endemic equilibrium are determined and analysed. The disease-free equilibrium is shown to be asymptotically stable provided R0 < 1. The model is shown to undergo forward bifurcation at R0 = 1 using the Centre Manifold Theorem. Sensitivity analysis is used to determine the parameters that have the highest influence on transmission. Fitting the model to data from the 2021 Nigerian cholera outbreak, important parameters of the model are estimated. The impact of control measures as well as challenges that affected the effective implementation of these control measures are considered.

Keywords

• basic reproduction number
• disease dynamics
• model fitting
• sensitivity analysis