Construction and Validation of Mortality Risk Nomograph Model for Severe/Critical Patients with COVID-19

Abstract

Objective: A nomograph model of mortality risk for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was established and validated. Methods: We collected the clinical medical records of patients with severe/critical COVID-19 admitted to the eastern campus of Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University from January 2020 to May 2020 and to the north campus of Shanghai Ninth People’s Hospital, Shanghai JiaoTong University School of Medicine, from April 2022 to June 2022. We assigned 254 patients to the former group, which served as the training set, and 113 patients were assigned to the latter group, which served as the validation set. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariable logistic regression were used to select the variables and build the mortality risk prediction model. Results: The nomogram model was constructed with four risk factors for patient mortality following severe/critical COVID-19 (≥3 basic diseases, APACHE II score, urea nitrogen (Urea), and lactic acid (Lac)) and two protective factors (percentage of lymphocyte (L%) and neutrophil-to-platelets ratio (NPR)). The area under the curve (AUC) of the training set was 0.880 (95% confidence interval (95%CI), 0.837~0.923) and the AUC of the validation set was 0.814 (95%CI, 0.705~0.923). The decision curve analysis (DCA) showed that the nomogram model had high clinical value. Conclusion: The nomogram model for predicting the death risk of patients with severe/critical COVID-19 showed good prediction performance, and may be helpful in making appropriate clinical decisions for high-risk patients.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• death
• nomogram
• prognosis