暴雨灾害 (Feb 2023)
Risk assessment of meteorological disasters of loquat planting in Xianning of Hubei based on GIS
Abstract
The meteorological disaster is one of the most important factors affecting the large-scale planting and development of loquat. Taking the typical loquat producing areas in Xianning City of Hubei as an example, firstly, based on the investigation of planting situation and meteorological disasters in this areas in recent 10 years, combined with the observational data at the 6 national meteorological stations and the 135 regional weather stations in Xianning as well as the DEM elevation data of 30 m×30 m, we analyzed the disaster-causing factors and established the meteorological disaster index and its grade standard of loquat. Secondly, we constructed a comprehensive hazard assessment model of meteorological disasters by using the weight of each meteorological disaster hazard index calculated by Analytic Hierarchy Process. Finally, with the spatial distribution function of disaster probability established by the multiple regression analysis method combining the GIS technology, we conducted the evaluation and zoning of meteorological disaster hazard of loquat planting in this city. The results showed that (1) the meteorological disasters of loquat planting in Xianning City are mainly low temperature freeze injury, high temperature heat injury, and continuous rain in spring. Among them, the risk of low temperature freezing injury of loquat planting is higher than those of spring continuous rain and high temperature heat injury. (2) The middle-high mountains in the middle and the southern part of Xianning are the high-hazard areas of loquat planting. The hills and low mountains in the north of middle and southern mountains in Xianning are the middle-hazard areas. The lakeside area along the river in the north, the basin in the middle and the surrounding areas of lakes and reservoirs in Xianning are the low-hazard areas. (3) The meteorological disaster hazard of loquat planting in Xianning is closely related to geographical factors. As the altitude increase, the hazards of loquat suffering from low temperature freezing injury and continuous rain disaster increase, while the hazard of high temperature heat injury to loquat decreases. Due to the warming effect of water bodies and the blocking effect of mountains on the southward strong cold air, the hazard of severe low temperature to loquat planting is low in the areas near water bodies such as rivers, lakes, and reservoirs, and the southern neighboring areas of mid-high mountains in Xianning.
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