Energy Reports (Nov 2022)
Hydropower generation potential and prospective scenarios for sustainable electricity supply for the period 2022–2042: A case study of the NIN zone of Cameroon
Abstract
Hydropower is the sole renewable energy source on the grid in Cameroon, accounting for approximately 62% of this supply as of 2019. So far, hydropower is the most attractive source of grid electricity in the country, with a technically exploitable capability of around 115 TWh per year. However, the actual hydropower output (943 kW) is quite low, corresponding to about 7% of the country’s technically exploitable potential. The South Interconnected Network (SIN) zone, home to a technically exploitable potential of 83 TWh per year, produces 98.00% of the country’s hydroelectricity, while the North Interconnected Network (NIN) zone generates the remainder. Nevertheless, with its technically exploitable capability of around 7.5 TWh per year, the NIN zone has the potential to alleviate the energy poverty of its population and forecast sustainable energy-consuming projects (SECP), including electricity export (EE) to neighboring Chad and Nigeria. The present study is aimed at exploring short, median and high scenarios based on projected Average Annual Growth Rate (AAGR) of the national real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which are translated into electricity demand (ED) expected over a 20-year period (2022–2042). High scenario is an optimistic status that displays an AAGR of the GDP projected at 6.40%, equivalent to projected ED (PED) of 6.61%, while median scenario is a more conservative status, with realistic assumptions aligned with an AAGR of the GDP anticipated at 5.0%, corresponding to PED of 5.79%. Low scenario, more likely in the aftermath of COVID-19 pandemic, is the most pessimistic status, with an AAGR of 3.60% matching a PED of 3.60%. To achieve the objective of this study, a comprehensive review on economically exploitable hydropower potential (EEHP) sites in the NIN zone is performed, while under construction hydroelectric plants and projected ones are highlighted. Finally, the intended special contribution of this research is to shed light on hydrologic and energetic parameters of prioritized hydropower sites which match PED, under the best-case scenario of SECP expected by the end of the 20-year period in the zone.
