Redai dili (Apr 2024)
Risk and Trend Analysis of Drought Disaster in Bangkok
Abstract
Bangkok is a key city in the framework of the "Belt and Road" initiative in Southeast Asia. However, the economy, agriculture, and ecological environment of Bangkok is now facing significant risks due to frequent drought disasters in recent years, resulting in substantial economic losses. This study is based on the theory of natural disaster risk assessment and evaluates the risk of drought disasters by analyzing the factors causing disasters and the vulnerability of affected areas. We examine the spatial distribution of drought hazard risk, vulnerability, and overall risk in the Bangkok node area from 2000 to 2020, employing univariate linear regression analysis and the Mann-Kendall test to assess changing trends and spatial distribution characteristics. The results showed 41.64% of the land in the study area had a moderate or higher risk of drought disasters, with the highest risk areas located in the northwest of Nakhon Pathom and the central part of Pathum Thani. The risk levels in the region are determined by a combination of vulnerability and hazard factors. Furthermore, the risk, vulnerability, and hazard levels in Bangkok exhibit a linear upward trend. The central urban area of Bangkok has the fastest linear increase in vulnerability and risk and the risk level is increasing most rapidly in northern areas, which differs from the other two indicators. The results of the M-K test indicate that vulnerability in Bangkok's central built-up area is not significant but in the surrounding areas there is a strong upward trend. Notably, there are significant areas of decline in the northwest and southeast for Bangkok's vulnerability. Hazard and risk shows an insignificant rising trend in the east and a decreasing trend in the west. Central Bangkok's drought risk is increasing, highlighting a noticeable spatial distribution difference between the linear trend and the M–K test results. The spatial distribution of risk is influenced jointly by the drought disaster hazard and vulnerability in Bangkok, with vulnerability predominantly determining risk distribution. Finally, The significant increase in drought vulnerability and risk in urban built-up areas warrants close attention for future drought disaster risk management. These areas are currently unsuitable for construction, and efforts should be directed toward reducing their vulnerability to mitigate the risk of drought disasters. The use of fine-scale spatial data for analysis can provide a more detailed understanding of spatial characteristics, accurately reflect a region's water resource management capacity, enhance the rationality of risk assessment, and serve as a valuable reference for research on disaster risk management and risk distribution in node cities.
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