Nature Communications (Aug 2020)

The geography of COVID-19 spread in Italy and implications for the relaxation of confinement measures

  • Enrico Bertuzzo,
  • Lorenzo Mari,
  • Damiano Pasetto,
  • Stefano Miccoli,
  • Renato Casagrandi,
  • Marino Gatto,
  • Andrea Rinaldo

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18050-2
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 11, no. 1
pp. 1 – 11

Abstract

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Releasing COVID-19 lockdown measures risks increases in transmission. Here, the authors estimate the increase in transmission rate for different regions in Italy and estimate that isolation of 5.5% exposed and highly infectious individuals would be needed to compensate for a 40% increase in transmission.