Investment Cost Forecasting for Low Carbon Power System Planning Considering Technical Progress and Scale Effect

Abstract

Low carbon power system with high penetration of clean energy is an effective way to realize the carbon emission target. Long term power system planning should consider both technical constraints and reasonable investment cost forecasting. For reasonable investment cost forecasting in long term, the effect on investment cost by technical progress and scale effect should be taken into consideration both. Investment cost can affect the planning results of installed capacity, while installed capacity affects the investment cost forecasting result mutually. There is no paper that takes technical effect into investment cost forecasting or analyzes the mutual effect between planned installed capacity and investment cost forecasting. Technical progress can be quantified by TRL (Technical Readiness Level) while scale effect can be quantified by installed capacity. The novelty of this paper is proposing the 3D curve function which qualified the relationship between investment cost and technical progress & installed capacities for the first time to realize investment forecasting in long term. And the 3D curve is combined with the GESTP model by feedback the forecasting investment cost to power system planning which reveals the mutual effect between installed capacity planning and investment cost forecasting for the first time. The study case indicates that accelerating of technical progress will decrease the investment cost and increase the installed capacity of this technology and affect other technologies with interaction in the whole power system.

Keywords

• TRL
• learning curve
• curve fitting
• log-log regression
• low carbon power system
• long term planning