Projecting Urban Expansion by Analyzing Growth Patterns and Sustainable Planning Strategies—A Case Study of Kamrup Metropolitan, Assam, North-East India

Abstract

This research focuses on the urban expansion occurring in the Kamrup Metropolitan District—an area experiencing significant urbanization—with the aim of understanding its patterns and projecting future growth. The research covers the period from 2000 to 2022 and projects growth up to 2052, providing insights for sustainable urban planning. The study utilizes the maximum likelihood method for land use/land cover (LULC) delineation and the Shannon entropy technique for assessing urban sprawl. Additionally, it integrates the cellular automata (CA)-Markov model and the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) for future projections. The results indicate a considerable shift from non-built-up to built-up areas, with the proportion of built-up areas expected to reach 36.2% by 2032 and 40.54% by 2052. These findings emphasize the importance of strategic urban management and sustainable planning. The study recommends adaptive urban planning strategies and highlights the value of integrating the CA Markov model and AHP for policymakers and urban planners. This can contribute to the discourse on sustainable urban development and informed decision-making.

Keywords

• CA-Markov model
• LULC
• analytical hierarchy process (AHP)
• Shannon entropy
• landscape metrics