Modeling the dynamics of Onchocerca volvulus with the impact of environmental factors on blackfly breeding sites

Abstract

Onchocerciasis is a significant public health concern, characterized by infections affecting the eyes and skin. The environmental factors contributing to its widespread occurrence are frequently undervalued, despite their significant influence. This research introduces an innovative mathematical model that utilizes fractional derivatives to examine the impact of several important variables, including temperature, river velocity, and oxygen concentration, on the breeding locations of blackflies. The objective of our study is to improve comprehension regarding the influence of environmental elements on the dynamics of onchocerciasis transmission. The efficacy of multiple vector control tactics and host screening approaches, such as skin snip biopsy and continuous detection at healthcare facilities, is evaluated through a series of comprehensive numerical experiments. Our results highlights the potential effectiveness of implementing comprehensive vector management strategies, in conjunction with frequent host screening techniques, in substantially decreasing the rates of disease transmission. Our study specifically emphasizes the efficacy of these interventions in riverine environments that are characterized by varying environmental circumstances. The findings obtained from this study have important significance for the development and execution of focused public health interventions aimed at combating onchocerciasis in areas where environmental factors are crucial in the transmission dynamics of the illness. This study provides significant insights into the worldwide endeavor to combat neglected tropical diseases, highlighting the critical importance of environmental factors and implementing integrated control techniques for efficient disease management and prevention.

Keywords

• Mathematical model
• Transmission dynamics
• Reproduction number
• Stability analysis