„The most likely future isn’t“: Landnutzungsszenarien für Mitteldeutschland

Abstract

Scenarios are coherent, internally consistent and plausible descriptions of possible future states, for example of land use in a region or a different spatial unit, which take the influence of markets, policy, climate into account. The qualitative descriptions of scenarios are called storylines, for example written narratives but also maps, pictures or movies. Apart from scientific purposes scenarios and storylines respectively are increasingly used in political contexts and national as well as international scientific advisory boards. They provide insights into future opportunities and scopes of actions and show the consequences of alternative policies. The paper introduces the participatory development process of storylines of land use in Central Germany as well as the final storylines and shows their potential uses. One example for the scientific application of the storylines is their use as a basis for computer-based land use change simulation (modelling). A further use of the storylines is seen in the context of land use planning. The storylines provide insights into alternative land uses and their positive and negative impacts, which can aid spatial planning or the development of policy measures or management strategies.

Keywords

• Storylines
• Relevance
• Credibility
• Legitimacy
• Participation
• Land Use