Environmental Research Letters (Jan 2024)
Multiple pathways towards sustainable development goals and climate targets
- Bjoern Soergel,
- Sebastian Rauner,
- Vassilis Daioglou,
- Isabelle Weindl,
- Alessio Mastrucci,
- Fabio Carrer,
- Jarmo Kikstra,
- Geanderson Ambrósio,
- Ana Paula Dutra Aguiar,
- Lavinia Baumstark,
- Benjamin Leon Bodirsky,
- Astrid Bos,
- Jan Philipp Dietrich,
- Alois Dirnaichner,
- Jonathan C Doelman,
- Robin Hasse,
- Ariel Hernandez,
- Johanna Hoppe,
- Florian Humpenöder,
- Gabriela Ileana Iacobuţă,
- Dorothee Keppler,
- Johannes Koch,
- Gunnar Luderer,
- Hermann Lotze-Campen,
- Michaja Pehl,
- Miguel Poblete-Cazenave,
- Alexander Popp,
- Merle Remy,
- Willem-Jan van Zeist,
- Sarah Cornell,
- Ines Dombrowsky,
- Edgar G Hertwich,
- Falk Schmidt,
- Bas van Ruijven,
- Detlef van Vuuren,
- Elmar Kriegler
Affiliations
- Bjoern Soergel
- ORCiD
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association , PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
- Sebastian Rauner
- ORCiD
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association , PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
- Vassilis Daioglou
- ORCiD
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency , PO Box 30314, 2500 GH The Hague, The Netherlands; Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University , Princetonlaan 8a, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands
- Isabelle Weindl
- ORCiD
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association , PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
- Alessio Mastrucci
- ORCiD
- Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) , Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
- Fabio Carrer
- Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology , Trondheim 7049, Norway
- Jarmo Kikstra
- ORCiD
- Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) , Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria; Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London , 16–18 Prince’s Gardens, London SW7 1NE, United Kingdom; The Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London , Exhibition Road, London, United Kingdom
- Geanderson Ambrósio
- ORCiD
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University , Princetonlaan 8a, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands
- Ana Paula Dutra Aguiar
- ORCiD
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University , Albanovägen 28, Stockholm 106 91, Sweden; National Institute for Space Research (INPE) , Av. dos Astronautas 1758, São José dos Campos, SP CEP: 12227-010, Brazil
- Lavinia Baumstark
- ORCiD
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association , PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
- Benjamin Leon Bodirsky
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association , PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
- Astrid Bos
- ORCiD
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency , PO Box 30314, 2500 GH The Hague, The Netherlands
- Jan Philipp Dietrich
- ORCiD
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association , PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
- Alois Dirnaichner
- ORCiD
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association , PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
- Jonathan C Doelman
- ORCiD
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency , PO Box 30314, 2500 GH The Hague, The Netherlands; Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University , Princetonlaan 8a, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands
- Robin Hasse
- ORCiD
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association , PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
- Ariel Hernandez
- ORCiD
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS) , Tulpenfeld 6, 53113 Bonn, Germany
- Johanna Hoppe
- ORCiD
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association , PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
- Florian Humpenöder
- ORCiD
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association , PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
- Gabriela Ileana Iacobuţă
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS) , Tulpenfeld 6, 53113 Bonn, Germany
- Dorothee Keppler
- ORCiD
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association , PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
- Johannes Koch
- ORCiD
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association , PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
- Gunnar Luderer
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association , PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany; Global Energy Systems Analysis, Technische Universität Berlin , Berlin, Germany
- Hermann Lotze-Campen
- ORCiD
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association , PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany; Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin , Berlin, Germany
- Michaja Pehl
- ORCiD
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association , PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
- Miguel Poblete-Cazenave
- ORCiD
- Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) , Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria; Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit , Amsterdam 1081 HV, The Netherlands
- Alexander Popp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association , PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany; Faculty of Organic Agricultural Sciences, University of Kassel , Witzenhausen, Germany
- Merle Remy
- ORCiD
- Research Institute for Sustainability (RIFS), Helmholtz Centre Potsdam , Berliner Strasse 130, 14467 Potsdam, Germany
- Willem-Jan van Zeist
- ORCiD
- Wageningen Economic Research , The Hague, The Netherlands
- Sarah Cornell
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University , Albanovägen 28, Stockholm 106 91, Sweden
- Ines Dombrowsky
- ORCiD
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS) , Tulpenfeld 6, 53113 Bonn, Germany
- Edgar G Hertwich
- ORCiD
- Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology , Trondheim 7049, Norway
- Falk Schmidt
- Research Institute for Sustainability (RIFS), Helmholtz Centre Potsdam , Berliner Strasse 130, 14467 Potsdam, Germany
- Bas van Ruijven
- ORCiD
- Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) , Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
- Detlef van Vuuren
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency , PO Box 30314, 2500 GH The Hague, The Netherlands; Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University , Princetonlaan 8a, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands
- Elmar Kriegler
- ORCiD
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association , PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany; Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Potsdam , Potsdam, Germany
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad80af
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 19,
no. 12
p. 124009
Abstract
The UN sustainable development goals (SDGs) and the Paris climate target require a holistic transformation towards human well-being within planetary boundaries. However, there are growing debates on how to best pursue these targets. Proposed transformation strategies include market- and technology-driven green-growth, shifting towards a sufficiency-oriented post-growth economy, and a transformation driven primarily by strong government action. Here we quantify three alternative sustainable development pathways (SDPs), Economy-driven Innovation, Resilient Communities, and Managing the Global Commons, that reflect these different societal strategies. We compare the quantifications from two integrated assessment models and two sectoral models of the buildings and materials sectors across a broad set of indicators for sustainable development and climate action. Our global multi-scenario and multi-model analysis shows that all three SDPs enable substantial progress towards the human development goals of the SDGs. They simultaneously limit global warming and prevent further environmental degradation, with the sufficiency-oriented Resilient Communities scenario showing the lowest peak warming and lowest reliance on carbon dioxide removal as well as the largest improvements in biodiversity intactness. The SDPs also alleviate the concerns about the biogeophysical and technological feasibility of narrowly-focused climate change mitigation scenarios. However, the shifts in energy and food consumption patterns assumed in the SDPs, ranging from moderate in Economy-driven Innovation to very ambitious in Resilient Communities, also lead to increased challenges regarding socio-cultural feasibility.
Keywords
- sustainable development goals
- climate change mitigation
- green growth
- post growth
- integrated assessment models
