An Ensemble Forecasting Alternative Based on Stochastic Parameter Perturbation (SPP) on Potential Vorticity Anomalies through the Identification of Weather Features as Coherent Objects

Abstract

The Pacific Ocean witnesses frequent cyclonic activity. The destructive impact of these storms, including strong winds, heavy rain, and storm surge, causes flooding, landslides, and extensive damage. Understanding cyclone genesis and evolution is crucial for accurate forecasts and minimizing harm. Towards this direction, an alternative ensemble forecasting approach based on a stochastic parameter perturbation (SPP) scheme, applied in potential vorticity (PV) anomalies, was developed. Testing it on Typhoon Usagi demonstrated its effectiveness in introducing uncertainties to storm tracks and cyclone development. These findings highlight the potential of stochastic methods in regional forecasting systems.

Keywords

• typhoon
• ensembles
• stochastic perturbations