Optimization of the cropping pattern in Egypt

Abstract

Continuous increase of population in Egypt, limited fresh water, poor maintenance and low efficiency of irrigation systems lead to a real burden on the Egyptian natural water resources. Accordingly, for Egypt, land and water resources management is considered an absolutely strategic priority. In this study, a linear optimization model is developed to maximize the net annual return from the three old regions of Egypt. Data for 28 crops in five years from 2008 to 2012 are being analyzed. The spatial variations of crops, irrigation water needs, crop yields and food requirements are incorporated in the model. The results show that there is a significant reduction in the allocated areas for onion, garlic, barley, flax, fenugreek, chickpeas, lentil and lupine since they are considered as non-strategic crops. On the other side, the allocated areas for strategic crops such as wheat, maize, clover, rice, sugar products and cotton remained almost the same to satisfy their actual food requirements. However, crops with high net returns such as tomatoes have increased substantially. The trend for the gross net benefit is decreasing and is expected to reach a lower value in year 2017. Different approaches and scenarios are analyzed. The developed model proposes a change in the cropping pattern in the old lands of Egypt to increase the gross net return without adding further any other expenses. Keywords: Cropping pattern, Linear programming, Net return, Optimization