Study on the Cascading Failure Robustness of the Belt and Road Land–Sea Transport Network under Emergencies

Abstract

When studying an unfamiliar system, we first look for the symmetry that the system has so that we can make many predictions about the possible properties of the system. The symmetry in transport network security needs to maintain a stable state and maintain a constant state of transport network security. With the development of China–Europe freight trains, the transport between Asia and Europe has gradually formed the Belt and Road (B&R) land–sea transport network. In order to analyze the cascading failure mechanism of the B&R land–sea transport network, a network cascading failure model is constructed. Then, the quantitative analysis of the connectivity indicators of the land–sea transport network is conducted from the node attack strategy, and it is compared with the Maritime Silk Road (MSR) shipping network. Finally, the robustness of the land–sea transport network under emergencies is analyzed. From the results of deliberate attacks, the attack threshold of the B&R land–sea transport network is the same as that of the MSR shipping network, and the maximum number of attacks is slightly less than that of the MSR shipping network. The Russia–Ukraine conflict has a minimal impact on the robustness of cascading failure in the land–sea transport network. The Red Sea crisis may have a significant impact on the robustness of cascading failure in the land–sea transport network. The research results can provide suggestions for improving the robustness of the B&R land–sea transport network.

Keywords

• the belt and road
• land–sea transport network
• cascading failure
• robustness
• emergency