Frontiers in Earth Science (Jul 2021)
A View for Atmospheric Unpredictability
Abstract
Based on Chaotic Dynamics, this paper illustrated the necessity of research and the objective existence of atmospheric unpredictability. Actually, inaccurate forecast happens all the time in both operational weather forecasting and climate prediction in which atmospheric unpredictability hides. By means of Discrete Mathematics, this paper also defined the Degree of Hesitation and the Predictable Days with which to discuss and compare the relationship between the predictability and unpredictability of several different forecast objects. In addition, this paper discussed the approaches of evaluating the atmospheric predictability and unpredictability, emphatically showed the Experience Assessment Method. At the last, this paper also proved the existence of atmospheric unpredictability by an example.
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