Estimation of the Source Apportionment of Phosphorus and Its Responses to Future Climate Changes Using Multi-Model Applications

Abstract

The eutrophication issue in the Yangtze Basin was considered, and the phosphorus loads from its tributary, the Modaoxi River, were estimated. The phosphorus flux and source apportionment of the Modaoxi River watershed were modeled and quantified, and their changes with respect to future projected climate scenarios were simulated with multiple model applications. The Regional Nutrient Management (ReNuMa) model based on Generalized Watershed Loading Functions (GWLF) was employed as a tool to model the hydrochemical processes of the watershed and thereby estimate the monthly streamflow and the phosphorus flux as well as its source apportionment. The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was used to predict future daily weather data through the statistical downscaling of the general circulation model (GCM) outputs based on projected climate scenarios. The synthetic time series of daily precipitation and temperatures generated by LARS-WG were further used as input data for ReNuMa to estimate the responses of the watershed hydrochemical processes to future changed climate conditions. The results showed that both models could be successfully applied and that the future wetter and warmer climate trends would have generally positive impacts on the watershed phosphorus yields, with greater contributions coming from runoff. These results could provide valuable support for local water environmental management.

Keywords

• climate change
• Yangtze phosphorus pollution
• ReNuMa
• GWLF
• LARS-WG