A Model for Predicting Enterprise Behavior in a Non-Stationary Environment

Abstract

The aim of the article is to build a model for predicting behavior of an enterprise under conditions of its interaction with the external environment, involving the formation and support of the optimal trajectory of its behavior. Based on the analysis of research works, the category “enterprise behavior” is considered, and its relationship with the enterprise’s development is determined. There formed rules that constitute its methodological basis for constructing a prognostic model and allow taking into account various aspects of enterprise behavior in the system “enterprise – industry – national economy”. As a result of the research, a system of prediction models, containing the Cobb-Douglas production function, lag, autoregressive and vector autoregressive models is constructed. As part of this model, there investigated the following blocks: production; scientific and technological progress and innovation and marketing component; financial and labor components; type / style of the company in a competitive environment; external interaction. The proposed model for predicting the behavior of an enterprise in an unsteady environment, which has the form of a system of functional dependencies, allows carrying out comprehensive analysis of the enterprise’s internal and external capabilities. The prospect of further research in this area is the development of target guidelines for managing the behavior of an enterprise in a fluctuating market environment, with consideration for its real and potential resources and development opportunities of the industry and the national economy.

Keywords

• enterprise behavior
• modeling
• prognostic models
• development
• management
• national economy
• production function
• autoregression