Sticky Rationality

Abstract

This essay explores the assumption of rationality in Foreign Policy Analysis. Two approaches, neoclassical realism and schema theory, will be highlighted and it will be examined how they incorporate the notion of rationality. Neoclassical realism reacts to the suboptimal outcomes, which realism fails to explain, by adding the domestic level though leaving the assumption of rationality untouched. Schema theory as a part of the cognitive school seemingly “bounds” rationality but then opens a backdoor through which rational agency can be reintegrated in the model. The case study of the sanctions regime on Iraq illustrates that the assumption of rationality can not only lead to unintended but also dangerous policy outcomes. This essay claims that it is almost tragic how those theories hold on to rationality and it offers an underlying explanation for the “stickiness” of rationality assumptions in Foreign Policy Analysis by using Quines concept of confirmation holism.

Keywords

• cognitive school
• confirmation holism
• foreign policy analysis
• neoclassical realism
• scientific method