Detections and SIR simulations of the COVID-19 pandemic waves in Ukraine

Abstract

Background. Unfortunately, the COVID-19 pandemic is still far from stabilizing. Of particular concern is the sharp increase in the number of diseases in June-July, September-October 2020 and February-March 2021. The causes and consequences of this sharp increase in the number of cases are still waiting for their researchers, but there is already an urgent need to assess the possible duration of the pandemic, the expected number of patients and deaths. Correct simulation of the infectious disease dynamics needs complicated mathematical models and many efforts for unknown parameters identification. Constant changes in the pandemic conditions (in particular, the peculiarities of quarantine and its violation, situations with testing and isolation of patients) cause various epidemic waves, lead to changes in the parameter values of the mathematical models.

Keywords

• covid-19 pandemic
• covid-19 epidemic in ukraine
• mathematical modeling of infection diseases
• sir model
• parameter identification
• statistical methods
• 34a34
• 62j05
• 92c60