Delisting sharia stock prediction model based on financial information: Support Vector Machine

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to develop an early warning system model that can anticipate the occurrence of delisting of Islamic stocks (ISSI) using Support Vector Machines (SVM). Financial variables used consist of debt to equity, return on invested capital, asset turn over, quick ratio, current ratio, return on assets, return on equity, leverage, long term debt, and interest coverage. The population of this study is 335 sharia shares registered at ISSI in the period 2012-2017, with a total sample of 102 companies. The results show that the financial variables had a predictive power to the occurrence of delisting of Islamic stocks in the ISSI index. The effect of the independent variable or predictor variable is the financial ratio to the target variable or the dependent variable that is the potential for delisting of Islamic stocks in the ISSI index. With the development of 4 SVM models with different levels of prediction accuracy, SVM Model 1 with an accuracy rate of 71.57%, SVM Model 2 with an accuracy rate of 72.55%, SVM Model 3 with an accuracy rate of 82.35% and SVM Model 4 with an accuracy rate of 100%, it can be concluded that the SVM Model 4 is the best model.

Keywords

• delisting
• islamic stocks
• financial information
• support vector machines