Tide–surge interaction observed at Singapore and the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia using a semi-empirical model

Abstract

Tide–surge interaction plays a substantial role in determining the characteristics of coastal water levels over shallow regions. We study the tide–surge interaction observed at seven tide gauges along Singapore and the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia, focusing on the timing of extreme non-tidal residuals relative to tidal high water. We propose a modified statistical framework using a no-tide–surge interaction (no-TSI) null distribution that accounts for asymmetry and variation in the duration of tidal cycles. We find that our modified framework can mitigate false-positive signals of tide–surge interaction in this region. We find evidence of tide–surge interaction at all seven locations, with characteristics varying smoothly along the coastline: the highest non-tidal residuals are found to occur most frequently before tidal high water in the south, both before and after tidal high water in the central region, and after tidal high water in the north. We also propose a semi-empirical model to investigate the effects of tidal-phase alteration, which is one mechanism of tide–surge interaction. Results of our semi-empirical model reveal that tidal-phase alteration caused by storm surges is substantial enough to generate significant change in the timing of extreme non-tidal residuals. To mitigate the effect of tidal-phase alteration on return level estimation, skew surge can be used. We conclude that (1) tide–surge interaction influences coastal water levels in this region, (2) our semi-empirical model provides insight into the mechanism of tidal-phase alteration, and (3) our no-TSI distribution should be used for similar studies globally.