An Interrupted Time Series Analysis of the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Routine Vaccination Uptake in Kenya

Abstract

A strategic priority of the World Health Organization’s Immunization Agenda 2030 is to increase vaccination coverage and equity through reaching “zero-dose” children. Through an ecological study, we sought to quantify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the coverage of the pentavalent and the measles/rubella vaccines in Kenya, without implying causality. The monthly number of doses from January 2017 to August 2022 were obtained from the Kenya Health Information System for the pentavalent and the measles/rubella vaccines. Immediate (step) and long-term (ramp) changes following interruptions occurring during the period from March 2020 to December 2020 were assessed through an interrupted time series analysis using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, accounting for seasonality. In December 2020, there was an immediate decrease of 8337, 12,212, and 20,848 in the number of doses for the first, second, and third dose of the pentavalent vaccine, respectively (statistically significant for the third dose only). This corresponded to a percentage relative difference of −21.6, −20.1, and −24.5, respectively, for three doses of pentavalent vaccines, while for measles/rubella vaccine it was −27.3 and −33.6, respectively, for the first and second dose. COVID-19 resulted in interruptions affecting routine immunization, but recovery occurred within four months.

Keywords

• public health
• epidemiology
• immunization
• vaccination
• interrupted time series
• COVID-19