Лëд и снег (Apr 2015)
Reconstructing mass balance of Garabashi Glacier (1800–2005) using dendrochronological data
Abstract
The exploration whether tree-ring data can be effectually applied for the mass balance reconstruction in Caucasus was the main goal of this research. Tree-ring width and maximum density chronologies of pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) at seven high-elevation sites in Northern Caucasus were explored for this purpose. As well as in other places of the temperate zone tree- ring width has complex climate signal controlled both temperature and precipitation. Instrumental mass balance records of Garabashi Gglacier started at 1983s. It is well known that Caucasus glaciers intensively retreat in the last decades and according to instrumental data mass balance variations are mostly controlled by the ablation, i.e. summer temperature variations. Maximum density chronology has statistically significant correlation with mass balance due to summer temperature sensitivity and great input of ablation to total mass balance variations. To include in our reconstruction different climatically sensitive parameters, stepwise multiple regression model was used. The strongest relation (r = 0.88; r2 = 0.78; p < 0.05) between two ring-width and one maximum density chronologies was identified. Cross-validation test (r = 0.79; r2 = 0.62; p < 0.05) confirmed model adequacy and it allowed to reconstruct Garabashi Glacier mass balance for 1800–2005ss. Reconstructed and instrumental mass balance values coincide well except the most recent period in 2000s, when the reconstructed mass balance slightly underestimated the real values. However even in this period it remained negative as well as the instrumental records. The bias can be explained by the weak sensitivity of the chronologies to winter precipitation (i.e. accumulation). The tree-ring based mass balance reconstruction was compared with one based on meteorological data (since 1905s). Both reconstructions have good interannual agreement (r = 0.53; p < 0.05) particularly for the period between 1975 and 2005. According to the reconstruction two distinct periods of positive mass balance occurred in 1830s and 1860s. They agree well with early historical data and the tree-ring of moraines of Kashkatash Glacier in Central Caucasus.
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