Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation under Climate Change in Parsian Basin

Abstract

Climate change caused by global warming has altered temporal-spatial distribution as well as rate and form of precipitation, the magnitude of floods, annual precipitation ​​in rivers, seasonal variation of probable maximum precipitation and flood, water quality, evaporation rate, concentrations of nutrients in aquifers, etc. the Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Model (AOGCM) is currently the most reliable tool to study the effects of climate change on different systems. This model simulates climate parameters. Estimation of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is an important and practical research method that not only identifies behavior of extreme rainfall in climatology, but also helps hydrologists to design various large water control structures, especially dams. Climate change affects PMP in the coming periods. Consequently, PMP estimates will be modified by hydrologists.

Keywords

• global warming
• precipitation change trend
• global circulation model
• climate change scenario