Revisiting the asymmetry between the exchange rate and domestic production in South Asian Economies: Evidence from Nonlinear ARDL Approach

Abstract

: Many of the early studies that investigate the impact of exchange rate movements on domestic production report mixed findings in terms of the effect on economic growth. However, the majority of these studies had were limited in that they relied on a prior assumption of linear adjustment of the exchange rate fluctuations toward domestic output. We suspect that a prior assumption of linearity may mask the empirical results. We, therefore, bring nonlinearity into the adjustment process through the partial sum approach to the exchange rate by decomposing the exchange rate into depreciation and appreciation. We investigate both the symmetric and asymmetric effect of exchange rate changes on economic growth of the selected South Asian economies. Our results show significant evidence of the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on domestic production both in the short and long run in the case of all the selected economies.

Keywords

• Asymmetric effects
• exchange rate volatility
• domestic production
• Nonlinear ARDL