Impact of Induced Seismicity on the Housing Market: Evidence from Pohang

Abstract

In this study, we analyze the case of induced seismicity in Pohang, South Korea, in 2017 to investigate the effect of seismic risk perception on the local residential property market. Based on a hedonic pricing model with a difference-in-differences method, we examine the geographic distribution of the effects of unexpected earthquake hazards. Our results indicate an overall reduction in local property values, but the magnitudes of negative externality for housing prices decrease with respect to the distance from the epicenter. In areas within 3 km of the epicenter, the asset value reduced by approximately 20% after an earthquake event, but if the distance from the epicenter was higher than 12 km, the negative effect on the price was not significant. In addition, we examine how the experience of seismic events affect the preference on the anti-seismic building structure. The results show that the market valuation on the anti-seismic system significantly escalated after the earthquake.

Keywords

• induced seismicity
• housing price
• hedonic
• difference-in-differences
• Pohang