Prediction of Road Traffic Accidents on a Road in Portugal: A Multidisciplinary Approach Using Artificial Intelligence, Statistics, and Geographic Information Systems

Abstract

Road Traffic Accidents (RTA) cause human losses and irreparable physical and psychological damage to many of the victims. They also involve a very relevant economic dimension. It is urgent to improve the management of human and material resources for more effective prevention. This work makes an important contribution by presenting a methodology that allowed for achieving a predictive model for the occurrence of RTA on a road with a high RTA rate. The prediction is obtained for each road segment for a given time and day and combines results from statistical methods, spatial analysis, and artificial intelligence models. The performance of three Machine Learning (ML) models (Random Forest, C5.0 and Logistic Regression) is compared using different approaches for imbalanced data (random sampling, directional sampling, and Random Over-Sampling Examples (ROSE)) and using different segment lengths (500 m and 2000 m). This study used RTA data from 2016–2019 (training) and from May 2021–June 2022 (test). The most effective model was an ML logistic regression with the ROSE approach, using segments length 500 m (sensitivity = 87%, specificity = 60%, AUC = 0.82). The model was implemented in a digital application, and a Portuguese security force is already using it.

Keywords

• imbalance data
• machine learning algorithms
• negative sampling
• road traffic accidents
• ROSE