Predicting the effect of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine uptake by pregnant women on birth weight using a generalized ordered partial proportional odds model

Abstract

Abstract Background Low birth weight is a public health problem in Africa with the cause attributable to malaria in pregnancy. World Health Organization recommends the use of intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp) with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine to prevent malaria during pregnancy. The objective of this study was to evaluate the prevalence and trajectories of birth weight and the direct impact and relationship between sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and birth weight in Ghana since 2003. Method This study used secondary data obtained from the Demographic and Health Survey conducted in Ghana since 2003. Low birth weight was defined as weight 4000 g. In all the analysis, we adjusted for clustering, stratification and weighting to reduce bias and improve precision of the estimates. Analysis was performed on each survey year as well as the pooled dataset. The generalized ordered partial proportional odds model was used due to violations of the parallel regression model assumptions. Efforts were made to identify all confounding variables and these were adjusted for. Predictive analysis was also executed. Results The overall prevalence of low birth weight was 9% while that of macrosomia was 13%. The low birth weight for 2003 was 12% while in 2008 it was 21% and then 68% in 2014. The mean birth weight of the children in 2014 was 3.16 (3.14, 3.19), 2008 was 3.37 (3.28, 3.45) and 2003 was 3.59 (3.49, 3.69) while that of the pooled data was 3.28 (3.25, 3.30). The adjusted model (taking into consideration all confounding variables) showed that non-uptake of SP could result in 51% odds of giving birth to a low-birth-weight compared with normal birth weight child. An insignificant result was observed between macrosomia and low birth weight. Conclusion There is higher probability that low birth weight could increase over the next couple of years if measures are not taking to reverse the current trajectories. The uptake of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine should continue to be encouraged and recommended because it has a direct beneficial effect on the weight of the child.

Keywords

• Sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine
• Low birth weight
• Normal birth weight
• Macrosomia
• Pregnant women
• Predictive probability