Identification of an endogenous retroviral signature to predict anti-PD1 response in advanced clear cell renal cell carcinoma: an integrated analysis of three clinical trials

Abstract

Background: Endogenous retrovirus (ERV) elements are genomic footprints of ancestral retroviral infections within the human genome. Previous studies have demonstrated that dysregulated ERV transcription level is associated with immune cell infiltration in cancers, but the association between ERV expression and programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) blockade response is currently unraveled for solid cancers, such as advanced clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC). Methods: ERV mRNA profiles were obtained from three clinical trials of ccRCC where the patients were treated with anti-PD-1 (CM-009, CM-010, CM-025, and TCGA-KIRC data). Patients treated with nivolumab were divided into training and test cohort, while the TCGA-KIRC cohort was used as an external validation. Univariate Cox regression analysis and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression were used to establish the signature. Immune cell infiltration analysis and gene set enrichment analysis were performed to explore potential biological mechanisms. Results: An ERV signature was established based on nine ERV expression patterns. In the training cohort, the median overall survival in the low- and high-risk group was 45.2 and 19.6 months [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.49, 0.32–0.75, p < 0.001], respectively. The results were confirmed in the test (HR = 0.41, 0.20–0.83, p = 0.013), and in the TCGA-KIRC cohort (HR = 0.55, 0.34–0.90, p = 0.017). Moreover, in the CM-025 cohort, the low-risk group that received nivolumab had a more favorable survival compared with those that received the mTOR inhibitor everolimus, while no significant differences were observed in the high-risk group. CD8+ T cells were enriched in the low-risk group, while immune suppressive pathways were suppressed. Conclusion: The newly identified ERV signature is not only a prognostic, but also a predictive biomarker for advanced ccRCC patients who received anti-PD-1 therapy, which can guide personalized treatment in cancer patients in the future.