The role of economic evaluation in modelling public health and social measures for pandemic policy: a systematic review

Abstract

Abstract Background Dynamic transmission models are often used to provide epidemiological guidance for pandemic policy decisions. However, how economic evaluation is typically incorporated into this technique to generate cost-effectiveness estimates of pandemic policy responses has not previously been reviewed. Methods We systematically searched the Embase, PubMed and Scopus databases for dynamic epidemiological modelling studies that incorporated economic evaluation of public health and social measures (PHSMs), with no date restrictions, on 7 July 2024. Results Of the 2,719 screened studies, 51 met the inclusion criteria. Most studies (n = 42, 82%) modelled SARS-CoV-2. A range of PHSMs were examined, including school closures, testing/screening, social distancing and mask use. Half of the studies utilised an extension of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model. The most common type of economic evaluation was cost-effectiveness analysis (n = 24, 47%), followed by cost-utility analysis (n = 17, 33%) and cost–benefit analysis (n = 17, 33%). Conclusions Economic evaluation is infrequently incorporated into dynamic epidemiological modelling studies of PHSMs. The scope of this research should be expanded, given the substantial cost implications of pandemic PHSM policy responses.

Keywords

• Pandemics
• Policy making
• Dynamic mathematical models
• Systematic review