Extreme Precipitation Analysis in Novi Sad

Abstract

A direct consequence of the global climate change is the alteration of seasonal precipitation patterns and as a consequences pluvial flood in urban areas becoming more frequent. In this study, precipitation patterns for the city of Novi Sad were analysed for the 1961-2020 period. For the extraction of extreme precipitation values, the peaks-over-threshold method was applied with the threshold level set at the 90th percentile. For the inspection of time-dependent occurrence rates and assessment of significant changes, a Kernel estimation was applied. For the assessment of the significances of the occurrence rate estimation Cox-Lewis (CL) test was used. The obtained results indicate decreasing trends in occurrence rate and frequency of minor and strong events in the second half of the 20th century. On the other hand, we argue that there is the increase of occurrence rate and frequency of extreme events at the beginning of the new millennia. Regarding the occurrence and frequency of the extreme events a clear increase in occurrence rate and frequency can be observed, especially when frequency is observed as from the year 2000 a total of 11 of these extreme years occurred in contrast to six events prior 2000. The application of the CL test yields a decreasing trend of strong events and increasing trend of extreme events. The p values are as small as 0.0336 and 0.0034 respectively. The test confirms what confidence bands display, i.e., more and more extreme participations per decade towards the modern times.

Keywords

• precipitation
• flood
• urban
• novi sad
• serbia