SHOULD A PRODUCTION RATE VARIABLE BE INCLUDED IN MILITARY AIRCRAFT LEARNING CURVES? EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE

Abstract

Learning curves are a core analytical method employed by cost analysts to estimate weapon system production costs. This study examines United States Air Force aircraft programs and compares the traditional (e.g., Unit Theory) learning curve model to a production rate learning curve model. While there are some previous studies examining production rate models, one novelty of this research is the size of the dataset, which comprises the largest military examination to date. The results suggest the production rate model outperforms the traditional learning curve model. Additionally, the analysis identifies the post-Initial Operational Capability (IOC) time period as the preferred milestone in the life cycle to employ the production rate model.

Keywords

• learning curve
• production rate
• cost estimating
• cost modeling
• resource allocation
• defense budgets